New article about world oil production decline

A new study about the decline rates of the worlds giant oil fields and their influence on world oil production was recently accepted for publication in the prestigeous scientific journal Energy Policy. The study was performed together with american energy advisor Robert Hirsch, famous for his 2005 report on the peaking of world oil production.

The article is available in full from here.

Abstract:
The most important contributors to the world’s total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world’s giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base – giant fields – will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.